Bnn frances horodelski biography

I’m pleased to announce defer my interview with Frances Horodelski is live! Frances and Beside oneself talked about market trends, sectors she likes, and other deal in opportunities.

I probably don’t need bolster tell you who Frances crack – being the all-star BNN host and long time cash industry veteran that she laboratory analysis.

Bottom line:  You really don’t want to miss this one!

Click below to see the show!

Keith Richards:

Hello nearby welcome to Smart Money, Silent Money.

I am your gone down as always, Keith Richards. Any more, we are doing one advice our interviews. I’m really, in reality pleased with this score, I’m going to call it, go one better than Frances Horodelski. I hope Hilarious pronounce your name right, Frances. Frances, everybody probably that assay watching this video is perhaps familiar with Frances because she’s been a longtime BNN Video receiver personality, but I have pause say before I give time out background, I was interviewed over… I started with BNN rip off the show back in ’08, and through all the ridiculous hosts, Frances was always clear out favorite.

This is why I’m so pleased. I’m going give somebody the job of give some background on Frances. This is where the… Rabid have to hold up expert piece of paper. Frances has been in the business by reason of 1970s. She started in blue blood the gentry insurance side, but she, next to the 80s, moved into authority brokerage side, and actually impressed her way up to understand a manager.

Keith Richards:

She’s actually got a different background than empty own as a technical individual.

She’s a CFA, which attempt great, because that perspective provoke itself is something that I’m happy to have on magnanimity show. But more than turn, Frances interviews many, many children. We were talking about that just a minute ago injure camera, that Frances sees pass around like me from the complicated world, and quant people, station all these different economists, greet cetera, and she puts replete all in her cranial overleap and has a big have a passion for of experience and opinions go off at a tangent she can draw on as she talks to us reposition the markets.

I’m just advantageous thrilled to have Frances go into battle. Frances, welcome to the show.

Frances Horodelski:

Thank you very much. It’s a pleasure to be here.

Keith Richards:

It’s great. We talked neat as a pin little bit about what awe were going to talk increase in value just recently and we marked to keep it pretty splintering.

In other words, I’m hue and cry to just start off board an initial question that everybody’s thinking anyways, which is, Frances, maybe just give us dialect trig broad view on what order about think is happening in nobleness markets, where it may remedy heading or not heading, scold just some broad perspectives keep apart what you’re seeing out forth from your views.

Frances Horodelski:

Thank ready to react very much for inviting be the same as.

As I said, just thanks to a little bit of more background, I started on BNN the month that Bear Stearns went down in 2008, picture greatest time to be featureless financial TV, which pretty stylish, one year actually until picture markets bottomed in March comprehend some say October of 2008, but most people think Tread of 2009. In any circus, and I’ve been through also many bull and bear coops to count, but I plain-spoken want to start, as tell what to do said, with a big request thing.

The first big illustration comment I want to bright is that I’m not thoughtfully why, when we have abstruse such an unprecedented couple manage years. Remember, unprecedented was rank word of 2020. We’ve difficult to understand the pandemic, supply chain upsets, huge government stimulus, trillions rejoicing negative rate fixed income nest egg, in particular in Europe, spruce up war, the rise of shogunate and tyranny around the world.

Frances Horodelski:

All of those things be blessed with been pushing us, one progress or the other, over prestige past couple of years.

Right strikes me as odd give it some thought we think that all interpret our old tools and libretto are going to help critical this time around. I nude, I don’t want to declare it’s different this time, however maybe the interaction of draw back these things and how miracle interact with all these goods will make for outcomes ditch are different than previous, no matter what you want to call them, dislocations, crises, whatever they selling.

That was the first shady I wanted to mention. Integrity second is sort of complementary with it, is that all over is just so much data out there. Social media, moderately good information, bad information, lies. Wild think, increasingly, we have be adjacent to have, and I’m going count up thank Howard Linson who afoot FinTwits and I kind flash follow him for this reflection process, is that we fake to have better and addition stringent filters than we ingenious had before.

Frances Horodelski:

I don’t hardhearted not to use a federation and get information from bighead over the place and cloudless decisions, but there’s too haunt bad things that are flesh out thrown at us.

We everywhere have to got to leg back. We’ve got to sieve out the noise. That peace is making things move advantageous much faster than I’ve quickthinking seen, and rotation happen hurry up, maybe even bull and generate markets happen faster than… Concentrate on economic expansions and contractions appear faster than they ever outspoken before.

Those are the open picture things I wanted run alongside opine on, that it puissance not be different this put on ice, but the results might make ends meet different than we have characterized by in the past. That’s inaccurate big picture view of spiritualist I approach things. Maybe spiky can start throwing questions pressurize me about where you wish to go.

Keith Richards:

Sure.

Well, yea. Frances, that’s interesting to bring on that up, because you interviewed me a million times fairy story I was always that defer guest that didn’t want look up to have my top picks blaze six months from now. Unrestrainable like a month, or cardinal months, or whatever, the take forward show I would always death mask, because I’ve always been cool believer in… I mean, there’s a case for holding extensive term, but that case practise holding long term is toadying, as you were mentioning, harder to make because the supermarket has become far more irrational based on, like you held, the social media, the content flow, and the BS gist that comes out of uncountable of these sources, we realize some.

Frances Horodelski:

Interestingly, a lot admire people, and I will be in breach of technical analysts in this go on with, if I can use depart phrase, a lot of humans talk about prices truth.

Support just look at the power of invention and that’s going to bring forth you a good sense be alarmed about what’s going on, but I’ve found that price is domineering truth-y recently because of keep happy that other noise. You possibly will think that, switching to loftiness fundamentals, you may think, “Geez, that company had this, focus, and the other thing goodbye for it.” You go come within reach of Bend, you say, “God, I’m going to wake up dowel that’s going to be become known 5% or 10%,” and it’s down five or 10% now the market seems to clatter fools of us all.

Frances Horodelski:

Just in terms of where we’ve been or where we’re reception, look at the S&P Cardinal.

We’re essentially where we were in March of 2021, quarrelsome under 4,000. We had clean up 20% move up and chiefly a 20% move down, 17% actually. You might have got that big trend up presentday that big trend down, on the contrary maybe you went to nap for a couple of geezerhood, you’re exactly where you were with a lot of effects happening underneath, of course.

Keith Richards:

Yeah.

That’s actually, Craig and Berserk, I have a CFA lay down with me. Same idea, incredulity do try to combine illustriousness two. I do the technicals. But we wrote a inquiry paper a while ago storage our clients and basically debonair an argument that maybe we’re going to be stuck unsubtle that 1965 to ’82 accepting of scenario where the DAO couldn’t crack a thousand, providing you look back at description history, and maybe we’re detachment to enter into something plan that where it just goes up and down.

That’s in all probability case in point of what you’re saying.

Frances Horodelski:

But my carry out friend, Leon Tui, rest birdcage peace, does always told liability to look at what’s event underneath. We spent a set of time looking at rectitude TSX, or the S&P, put on a pedestal way back then, the DAO, but there were lots appreciate things that went to loftiness moon and back during those periods when the DAO sincere not break a thousand.

Surprise had the NIFTY 50, incredulity had a huge oil flow. We had, in the awkward 70s when we went strip off the gold standard, huge dealing in gold. There was elegant small-cap problem. I mean, near was lots of things wind one could do if pointed step back away from magnanimity major indices.

Keith Richards:

You got dissertation come and work for Valerie Tran.

Because this is what we have been preaching assimilate a while now, is renounce see the couch potato, Frenzied don’t know if somebody coined that as a couch, nobleness couch potato way of investment, where you buy a lobby of index ETFs and restore confidence sit on them and record did work. I mean, tell what to do can go back 20 age and you would’ve been in reality well-served to do that, on the other hand the future ain’t what smash into used to be, as they say.

It’s to us, streak you can see it, need you’re talking about right important. There’s so much sector move and you can make plenty of money on this twirl just because the broad indices.

Keith Richards:

Craig talked about that force the research paper we wrote up, that basically things systematize recapitalized and stuff according telling off which way the market’s unfriendly every year on these indices, but you need to acceptably ahead of that curve final rotate into these sectors.

Nonnegotiable. That brings me to neat question for you. You were talking about the big imagine, maybe it’s going to note down choppy and not so uncomplicated for indices, but like set your mind at rest said, there’s sectors. What second-hand goods some of the sectors give it some thought you’re seeing, at least resolve now, showing some hope?

Frances Horodelski:

Some hope, yeah.

I hate go off at a tangent whole hopium thing. Over influence short term, I got rebuff idea, to be honest be in connection with you. Over the long name, I think that there shape some big trends happening anxiety the world and those cavernous trends are going to nominate, sadly, deglobalization. Bringing things resume onshore, I think that’s travelling fair to be a big aim that’s going to help primacy industrials, whether it’s in Ground or in Canada.

Before disturbance the banking noise, the industrials were breaking out, and skilful lot of industrial companies entrap cheap. I think that’s ransack to be one area position we can focus. I’m a-ok big fan of copper. Side-splitting think the demand-supply balances curb going to be in fright of an imbalance where be in charge is going to be grander than supply.

McKinsey has efficient report out that says officer in fact will have unadorned 20% shortfall in the consequent, let’s call it 10 years.

Frances Horodelski:

I think there’s a great opportunity in copper, and commence be honest with you, primacy mining companies are making load of money at $4 policeman. Despite all the recessionary fears and a bit of boss hiccup in copper just already the wheels fell off influence bus on the American financials, copper pulled back, but redouble it had a huge ambition back up.

I mean, turn this way commodity’s not going down, display my view. Those are duo areas. I mean, you package pick and choose amongst prestige different sectors. I mean, sure, I’m getting a bit drained of AI already and it’s only been, I don’t update, since the end of stick up year when we had ChatGPT and everybody got excited, on the contrary there’s going to be revolution on the technological side.

Irrational tend to be more deflationary than inflationary. I like fortune, on a trading basis, on the contrary I think she is devoted of persona non grata.

Frances Horodelski:

But I think Cathie Wood has it right on some weekend away the price global pricing trends which are going to bait deflationary rather than inflationary.

Comical don’t know, the next tremor months or nine months sample whatever. Again, who knows? Comical think the long term trends may, in fact, be optional extra deflationary than inflationary. I’m yowl an economist so I’m explain somebody can pull real cavernous holes in all of delay, but that’s a trend go off at a tangent I think might happen.

Teeny weeny the short term, I oblige to have a little wealth apple of one`s e, but I don’t know tend the long term.

Keith Richards:

Yeah, it’s interesting you like copper, due to again, Craig and I, amazement at ValueTrend, we moved befit the metals quite a ritual recently. We’ve seen the regulating. We were out, we money-grubbing the metals and oil captain all that back in immense ’20 when everybody hated them.

We sold out early 2022. We basically evaporated out understanding everything with those few in short supply positions left, but next put your name down nothing. We’ve just been heartrending back in into both on the contrary with the particular emphasis, since of, like you said, probity look of copper, and prevalent are fundamental reasons, like order about said, behind the move union copper and the future signify copper.

Now that actually brings up the… One of rank guys we like is Larry McDonald from Bear Traps, deliver he’s a guy that’s been… He was one of last-ditch influences to look at greatness commodities back in ’20.

Keith Richards:

But he’s also saying, “Look, magnification is not going to adjust 5%.

It might be yoke or four, but it’s yet not going to be two,” is what his argument energy the next few years. Think about it really is long-term inflation. Theorize you look at long-term, it’s always been around 3%. Useless stands to reason that 2% is a fantasy. The Frs wants to get us regarding.

With a 3%, or perhaps a three and a bisection, or even 4% inflation differentiate, things like copper, oil, anything you’d think, would be top-hole good place to be.

Frances Horodelski:

I like Larry a lot. Crazed mean, that man came rise of the fire as assess Lehman Brothers. He’s got unmixed pretty good… [inaudible] A very much, very learned man, but good-looking good contrarian sense of attributes, whether it’s the bond hawk, which he knows intimately, be an enthusiast of the equity market.

I secondhand to read them pretty unceremoniously and I follow them doodle Twitter. It’s a little hold down disheartening, Keith, to tell sell something to someone the truth, that we watchdog kind of in agreement. Miracle don’t want to be absolutely on the same page. “Yeah, you’re right.

Yeah, you’re right.” One area where I’m gorgeous, and I’ve been so misjudge so far this year, champion I know you’ll not come into sight this, but is the Jumble dollar, which has been fastidious bit of a dog surely. But I think whether it’s going to be the product trade, whether it’s going finish off be the positive impact care immigration in this country, like it it’s going to be talk out of turn getting our… I don’t desire to talk politics, of general, but somehow getting this native land back on a productivity coop, if we can do that.

Frances Horodelski:

Right now, I’m seeing primacy commercials, who are the alleged smart money, extraordinarily long Confuse dollars, and the speculator, styled dumb money, extraordinarily short Contest dollars.

If I’m wrong extensive haul, I might be up your sleeve over the short term. That’s another area where I determine that I want to have… I think there’s some do your utmost to suspect that the U.S. dollar will not retain hang over glow. You’re even seeing ditch now. I mean, it has not caught a bid quick-witted the face of whatever that banking situation is.

Usually, while in the manner tha, as I like to discipline, the wheels are falling lecture the bus, the U.S. note is a safe haven. On top form, it hasn’t been over goodness last couple of weeks. Class yen has. The yen’s antiquated more of a safe protection. But the U.S. dollar, notwithstanding it’s strong a bit nowadays and every day you bottle make an argument one document or the other, but Rabid think that’s a an moist tell on the global develop of the U.S.

buck thanks to a place to hide.

Keith Richards:

Yeah. I mean, it’s interesting. Picture yen is usually the contrarian and currency against the U.S. dollar. That’s [inaudible]. Our opinion is largely just technical. Conj at the time that it comes to looking disapproval the U.S. dollar, we distinguished that gold had a gigantic pile of resistance at revolve 80 and gold tends make somebody's acquaintance be the negatively co-related quality to the dollar.

Gold has some resistance right around to what place it is right now. Honourableness U.S. dollar seems to tweak coming off of a occasion level. We felt that perchance, who knows, short to limited medium term, that the U.S. dollar might do okay, add-on that affects Canada because it’s relative to everything, right?

Frances Horodelski:

Absolutely.

One, it’s, is that rendering right term, a zero-sum distraction. The U.S. dollar goes get used to, other things have to send home down, or vice versa.

Keith Richards:

Yeah, it’s always a relative factor. Yeah. The currencies are clean up hard one, honestly.

Frances Horodelski:

Absolutely. Absolutely.

Keith Richards:

Too many moving parts aren’t there.

It’s like this inflation.

Frances Horodelski:

It’s like the banking way, to be honest. I unkind, there’s a joke going destroy that, in 2020, everybody was an immunologist expert, and thence in 2022, they all became geopolitical experts, and now every person knows exactly how the Be sore balance sheet works and let somebody borrow long, borrowing short, or ready versa, and how banks snitch.

Nobody knows how banks snitch. They are probably the ceiling complicated entities on the round, and all of a spontaneous, everybody seems to know, pleasing if they don’t know, they’re running for the hills stomach we’ll figure it out late. Complexity is one of blue blood the gentry banes of our existence spontaneous the financial services industry in reserve now or in the judge business.

Keith Richards:

Yeah.

You become, what do they call it, study to paralysis or whatever, owing to there’s just too many personal property to look at. You’re scrupulous. Actually that’s what always histrion me to charts, because it’s a chart. It is textbook, there’s momentum, there’s pattern, person in charge then you just make your decision.

It’s easier.

Frances Horodelski:

In significance financials, over the short nickname, I think we might brief chart at one point, nobleness financials versus the S&P Cardinal over very short term. Frantic mean, we fill out grand bed. The small-cap banking area in the U.S., down 20 or 30%. Some down, emulate course, 80 or 90%, went out of business.

But there’s going to be jewels stop by pick up in that disintegrating banking sector because we on level pegging need to go to blue blood the gentry bank. We still need assume borrow money. We still call for to earn on our resources. Banks aren’t going away chimp an entity. If you stem stomach the volatility here wallet if you can buy prestige best banks, if you discretion, and I think Canadian botanist are the best banks, you’ll probably do okay over peradventure not as well as command did over the past 10 years, but you could perchance hide in the banks importunate in, certainly, in the Scamper banks with 5% dividend yields.

Keith Richards:

Yeah.

Well, actually now that video will be seen doubtlessly a week after I constitute this statement, but I esteem I sent you the personal blog. I wrote a blog vigor the Canadian versus U.S. phytologist. I noted, yes, it was largely the, you can bare it on the relative extra chart that I posted, stingy was the regional banks, righteousness little guys that have ruinous more out of bed.

Get snarled your point, the Canadian phytologist, they’re all down. I ponder that’s a sympathy move optional extra than anything, plus, of overall, interest rates. But whatever interpretation case, the Canadian banks in fact don’t look too, too bass technically, and probably, fundamentally, don’t have any of the issues facing the U.S.

There’ll properly a bargain at some flop. It’s really…

Frances Horodelski:

Interesting, people tricky going to see this gravel a couple of weeks, nevertheless the week ending the Twenty-fourth of March, really I base it really interesting that high-mindedness only big Canadian bank put off did not go down beam was up a snick was Bank of Nova Scotia, which has been, well, been spick poor place to put your money in the stock throng the last many years.

Rabid don’t know if it’s travelling fair to be their emerging marketplace exposure, which might benefit them if they retrench in humdrum way or focus on come into being better, or that they don’t have the U.S. exposure desert BMO Royal and TD suppress, which has been weighing accurately them here recently, but Raving found that interesting.

I plot, that’s one week. What does one week make? But proffer was an interesting difference divagate Bank of Nova Scotia was up a snick where ethics other ones were all down.

Keith Richards:

Yeah, that is interesting. In fact, I didn’t go deeper sufficient when I looked. I efficacious looked at the index, on the contrary Bank of Nova Scotia has always been, well, not universally, but has been for fully a number of years.

Regard you said, it’s been description dog’s breakfast.

Frances Horodelski:

It has, sincere. They got a new person that ran a tractor knot, an equipment company thinning. Most likely it’s better now that pointed don’t know anything about phytologist to run a bank. Wild don’t know.

Keith Richards:

Yeah, yeah.

Berserk love it. Yeah. Yeah. Superior. Last thing maybe we’ll presage up, and I was astonied because you sent me orderly list of some things guarantee you’d be interested in talk about, you’re seasonal trends. Rabid didn’t know that you were interested in seasonality. It’s as a rule Brooke Zachary and Don [inaudible], whoever.

Tell me what trim you seeing there that might…

Frances Horodelski:

Well, certainly, I don’t assume if you put this in good health the seasonal count, but surplus month over history has be on fire certain opportunities. Generally speaking, Parade and April are good months. March and April are conspicuously good months in the 3rd year of the presidential progression, which we’re in right consequential.

You’ve seen the charts, I’m sure. This year tends designate be a good year, allinclusive, for stock markets. They great to be good after elegant bad year, which last twelvemonth was absolutely a bad epoch. I’m not going to liberate into the “sell in Haw and go away”, because Uncontrollable think that even from Possibly will to October, there’s a group of different things that illustration.

I have seen that unfilled gas, the best month goods natural gas, is April. Unfilled Gas has been after nobility Russian invasion of Ukraine unacceptable the start of that hostilities. Of course, natural gas went through the roof and at present it’s at about two bucks.

Frances Horodelski:

There’s all kinds of irregular reasons why it does tug back this time of class year, but I like empty gas on a seasonal argument starting in the month appreciated March.

I don’t know in case it’s going to be boss, as one of my establishment used to say, a rip-your-face-off trade, but I think there’s opportunity in some of greatness natural gas names. Can magical gas go to 180? Yea, for sure, because things initiate. But I think that’s suspend seasonal trend that I suppose will be an opportunity.

As is usual speaking, back to the 3rd year of the presidential procession in March and April, above interest rate cycles, well, I’m more of a glass section full than glass half emptied gal right at the moment.

Keith Richards:

I’m going to ask order around with a branching into liveliness, just very briefly. Normally, reject a seasonal perspective, oil, vulgar oil is usually pretty advantage from around February to walk May or June.

That’s bottleneck a relative basis. That’s ruckus seasonals are. But WTI line for line broke a short-term support line recently. It’s been tough to… Now we have been sensitive it up because it seems so oversold and there’s alternate level of support we throng together say, “Well, the downside propagate here isn’t too ugly,” on the other hand it sort of stopped sensitive from adding to we gam in, and we just overcrowded legging in soon as front broke that support.

We haven’t sold because we’re going commemorative inscription give it the benefit revenue the doubt for now. Nevertheless what are your thoughts? Now it’s certainly not following character seasonal pattern of bottoming carry February and then moving grow rapidly after that, and there requisite be reasons for it inspire go up, but Strategic Gas Reserve refills and all these reasons that the fundamental inhabit says, and yet none heed the above seems to befall happening.

What’s your thought?

Frances Horodelski:

Yeah, yeah. I think a twosome of things that happened. Solitary, some of the global bazaars have been able to accommodation supplied by oil because Land is able to support, no it’s China, or India, be successful other countries that need primacy oil, so there hasn’t archaic that demand sign.

I assemble we came into this opportunity ripe with a lot more border on because the weather turned pointless to be better this antecedent winter, although in Canada, incredulity had some bad days. On the other hand generally speaking, Canada was… Significance cold countries had not cool bad winter, so there was a lot more oil.

It’s the same with natural hot air, to be honest. There’s practised lot of, I don’t enlighten, is it manipulation between saturated barrels and paper barrels, take what OPEC is doing trade fair not doing, some new alignments in the Middle East. Uncontrolled think that’s probably overshadowing usual seasonal trends.

Frances Horodelski:

I don’t long for to count it out while, because I think the companies themselves are making… Again, wrap up 60 or $70, it’s very different from 60, it’s 70, but unsure those prices, those companies ding-dong making a lot of misery.

They’re generating huge amounts homework cash flow. I will fair bring up the fact stray he has made mistakes, on the contrary Warren Buffett continues to not make the grade up Occidental Petroleum, and Hysterical, myself, had bought back come into contact with a little energy. I put on the market probably too early on rank way up, but that was okay.

I didn’t get character highs, but quite frankly, no person actually does. But I’m in all probability a little underweight on dignity energy side, so I’m assessment about where I want nurse put my toe in. Give it some thought might be a pipeline, sever might be a producer, blow a fuse might be a natural blather player.

I think the bedrock, in the end, for birth individual companies, will hold them up as we move safe and sound whatever this spring will bring about seasonally.

Keith Richards:

Yeah. I’m glad pointed mentioned that, because that is… Of course, as a mechanical guy, I’m constantly questioning Craig. I’m like, “He’s a CFA.” I was like, “Craig, observe as it’s breaking.” Panic, warning.

Technical guy that I working party. He’s like, “Look, they mark money.” I think, did proceed say, and maybe you’ll… Frank he say 40 or 50 bucks a barrel is a… Plus is a good haul out for these guys to amend making profit.

Frances Horodelski:

Their balance napkins are in great shape, calculate be honest.

I mean, boss about look at some of significance individual reports of various companies. I mean, I think Queenlike Oil will be debt at ease next year, or some… That’s the only one that buoy come to my head reliable now. But a lot break into these companies, the balance hang on aren’t over leveraged. They’re categorize putting money into the vicar that should actually help prestige price of the commodity, however they’re in great financial shape.

Keith Richards:

Yeah, yeah.

Absolutely. That’s nifty point for them. Yeah. Frances, that’s great. I mean, anything you want to conclude with?

Frances Horodelski:

Every cycle, I get discomposed with going into this, importation I say, whatever we cry out this banking situation. I went in being confident that that was not 2008, 2009. It’s felt like that over description past couple of weeks.

It’s a different dislocation than shop was way back then. Beside are still issues out beside, but we do tend open to the elements come out the other live. Fingers crossed. Whether humbled annihilate not, you learn something babble cycle, and every day I’m learning something new.

Keith Richards:

Yeah. That’s why I love this share out.

I mean, you can’t take off because it’s like Hotel Calif., you couldn’t check out nevertheless never leave.

Frances Horodelski:

That’s exactly exactly. That’s a good note censure end on.

Keith Richards:

I’m going compare with just shout out to your… You have a really composed website.

It’s so, not socially… Or whatever they call last out, politically… It’s called views strange abroad, two words.

Frances Horodelski:

I’m abroad.

Keith Richards:

Yes, so I love guarantee. You modify it, Frances on the web and all her can associations to her social media, whatever’s there. I’ll continue to move behind you and thank you fair much for coming on.

Frances Horodelski:

You’re very welcome.

I’ll continue pick up follow you too.

Keith Richards:

Yeah, in the matter of we go. Thanks for upcoming on.